Last week was not a great week for the Matrix (about 40% against the spread). I was able to identify some flaws, and I'm hoping it will perform better from here on out.
This isn't an exciting week. Michigan and Ohio State is suddenly much less interesting.
A lot of high ranking teams are on the road, but generally against softer competition.
This week I am reporting two point margins - Season and Recent. Obviously, the second gives more weight to recent performances. In most cases, this is rather insignificant, but not always. Iowa State makes up 10 points against Kansas (who hasn't been playing badly), but is still 30 from winning.
Game 1. (6) West Virginia @ (22) Cincinnati
Obviously, Cincinnati could win. West Virginia is very dependent on their running game and Cincinnati is tough against the run. Playing at home doesn't hurt either (and it means we don't have to watch West Virginia in bright yellow). But I could also see West Virginia scoring early and often and winning easily.
West Virginia by 2.6 (1.8), 37.9% against the spread
Game 2. (7) Ohio State @ (21) Michigan
This game does not have national title implications, but it does have Big 10 and bragging right implications that matter just as much to those involved. The Matrix ranks Ohio State as the second best defensive team in the country (only LSU is better). Michigan has filled in the holes in the secondary and now actually ranks higher in pass defense than run defense. Their are no obvious match-up issues, and Michigan only has a slight advantage in terms of recent performance, but Ohio State is just a much better team.
Ohio State by 9.2 (8.4), 75% chance of winning
Game 3. (4) Oklahoma @ Texas Tech
Statistically, this game should be much different than most people assume. Tech might lead the nation in yards, but Oklahoma is 3rd in points, 2.5 more per game than Tech. Oklahoma plays killer defense against the run, but is little above average, and worse than Tech, against the pass. Tech will move the ball and will score some points. Tech hasn't played better at home this season and throughout the year all the biggest upsets have happened on the road. But if Oklahoma got down early, it could be tough to come back in Lubbock.
Oklahoma by 10.3 (10.9), 85% chance of winning
Game 4. (17) Boston College @ (15) Clemson
These two teams are playing for a chance to play in the ACC championship game. For Clemson, it would be redemption after a sloppy start. For BC, they are trying to save a season that was flushed the last two weeks. Clemson will want to run the ball, but BC is tough against the run. BC will want to throw and Clemson plays good pass defense. But Clemson has emerged as the better team over the last few weeks and, playing at home, is definitely the favorite to win again. BC, though, will try to avoid falling from undefeated and #2 to 8-3 and unranked in 15 days.
Clemson by 7.5 (9.4), 80% chance of winning
Nice work as always. I am curious as to your thoughts on the Jayhawks this week. To me, this seems like the end of the line for their perfect season (against the spread) as Iowa State is playing better and KU is nearly a 4 TD favorite.
ReplyDeleteI agree. I saw the line and literally gasped. It is at home and all, but Kansas has beaten any real football teams that badly all season (Nebraska doesn't count). And Iowa State is hot. My computer model seems to have something against Iowa State - it has picked against them heavily the last three week and it has been very wrong the last two.
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