I’m not a WVU fan. In fact, as a BYU alum, I hate the fact that the Big East gets an automatic BCS bowl bid while the MWC champion gets PAC-10 4/5. The largest stadium in the Big East holds 65,050 – which they borrow from the Steelers - and the mighty Panthers pack 43,000 in there for home games – not exactly big time football – but that’s not the point.
I’m not a WVU fan, but Saturday night’s loss to Pitt made me sick to my stomach. After a disastrous season of freakish upsets – not parity, but freakish upsets – I thought we just might get two one loss teams, with dynamic offenses, in the national championship game. Instead, we get the Buckeye Pansy Killers against a two loss team.
So, to avoid this kind of outcome in the future, I offer the NCAA and college football teams a few free suggestions (but I will accept donations).
1. Go Two Deep at QB
Longshore goes down - Cal loses. Dixon goes down – Oregon loses. Pat White goes down – WVU loses. Bradford goes down – Oklahoma loses. Booty goes down – USC loses. Defensive ends these days are more athletic and hit harder than ever before, and quarterbacks are more vulnerable running the spread offense. They are going to get hurt – and you need to have someone that can step up and play when that happens.
And you need to have someone that can run your offense. Jarrett Brown has his talents, but they are not the same as Pat White’s. Yet WVU kept trying to run the same offense and amassed 190 total yards. They have two running backs that are either former or future Heisman candidates in Slaton and Devine, but Brown keeps it play after play. Theoretically, Leaf also has talents (well-hidden?), but Oregon would have to run a completely different style of offense to exploit them.
So we need to start talking about depth at quarterback and realize that a team’s success over the course of the season will generally rely on its ability to overcome injuries with its second string qb. LSU won and West Virginia lost Saturday because the former has two quarterbacks while the latter has just one.
2. Give Pac-10 Coaches a Clock Management Workshop
If I’m not a WVU fan, then I’m definitely not a Cal fan, but their first of many losses still made me ill. Throw the ball away, get out of bounds, run faster than my grandmother and get the first down – just don’t get tackled in the middle of the field.
But Oregon’s blunder was even worse, because their blunder was premeditated. The game was tied. They've got first down and a chip shot field goal to win. They squatted on the ball to run off some clock and down the ball in the middle of the field. But then they run out the field goal team instead of spiking the ball to stop the clock, miss the rushed field goal, and lose in overtime (because they can’t convert on 4th and 1).
Cal managed a heroic collapse after their time-management disaster against Oregon State, and Oregon completed a three game losing streak by failing to get off a good field goal attempt against their in-state rival, Oregon State. I guess their coaches are so busy dreaming up creative offensive schemes they can't bother to worry about finishing games.
3. Hit a Field Goal
A reliable field goal kicker misses two close range attempts. The team is down by 6 (=3+3) late in the game until a safety ends any hope of a comeback. And national title hopes are lost. If Kansas’ and West Virginia’s kickers go in together, they might be able to afford the services of Blackwater USA long enough to get a chance at redemption next season.
4. Define the National Championship
The wonderful thing about college football is that every game counts. Even week 1 against Appalachian State. Any definition of a national champion that does not preserve this tradition in college football would ruin the sport.
First, this means that we should not have a tournament. If we did have a tournament this year, USC and OU (maybe Georgia) would end up playing for the national championship. USC lost twice, including at home against Stanford, and only won their conference because Dixon was attacked by a turf monster. Oklahoma lost twice on the road to Colorado and Tech. A tournament would discount those losses – and, therefore, make those games unimportant.
Second, I think it is also important to require a national champion win its conference championship. We made the mistake a few years ago of allowing Oklahoma to play for a title after getting a beat down in its conference championship game. The same goes for Georgia this year - and I don't care how well they've played recently. If we must have a tournament, allow only the 8 conference champions from the SEC, Big East, Big 10, Big XII, PAC-10, MWC, WAC, and ACC. This would have the nice externality of forcing Notre Dame to join a conference like everybody else.
A national championship game should include the two teams that have performed the best over the course of the season and also won their conference championships. This year, the natural selection would be LSU – who only lost twice, both times in 3OT and against tough competition – and Ohio State, the only one loss champion. If you lose to a team that is not bowl eligible, or lose by 25+ points, in my book, your disqualified.
5. Recognize that LSU's coaches are very mortal
First, Crowton. He was run out of Provo, and quickly after BYU becomes a power. Last year, they had one of the top 3 offenses in the country by the end of the season (just ask the Ducks). He goes to Oregon and their offense is a disaster (just ask the BYU defense). LSU picks him up - and I can only assume they did it to have a scapegoat in case they didn't win a championship. Oregon has the best offense in the world outside of Massachusetts after he leaves (until Dixon is injured), and LSU's offense is a little above average.
Bo - He had amazing success with the Blackshirts - 15 guys juiced out of their minds. Fine. At LSU, the defense is good, but their are better defenses in the country with less talent. I'm not impressed. If Nebraska fans think he will be their savior, suicide rates could be climbing over the next few years in that fine state.
and Les - Not impressed. Of course, I'm not at all impressed with Michigan and that program, either. Their football team's loss to App. State has been resoundingly outclassed by the basketball team losing to Harvard. It would be a better fit for Les at Michigan - less money, less recent succes, worse future prospects. But instead LSU offers him a raise? Ridiculous - even if he does give the world's second best press conferences (with Gundy at #1).
P.S. Shame on Pitt players and the program for dancing on the midfield logo. If Pitt actually had fans I would hope that they are embarrased for that performance.
P.P.S. The #2 curse lives on
BPR | A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
EPA (Expected Points Added) | Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play. |
EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession) | Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession. |
Adjusted for Competition | We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition |
Impact | see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent. |
[-] About this table
Includes the
top 180 QBs by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 240 RBs by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 300 Receivers by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes
the
top 180 players by pass attempts)
3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
%Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
Includes the top 240 players by carries
YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
%Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
%Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
%Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
xxxx | xxxx |
...
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
Defensive Possession Stats
Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession impact |
Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
Start Spot | Average starting field position |
Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
%RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
Defensive Play-by-Play Stats
EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact |
Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass impact |
Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush impact |
Exp/Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
Exp/Rush | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
Exp/Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact |
Exp/Rush+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact |
Comp% | Completion percentage |
Comp%+ | Completion percentage impact |
Yards/Comp | Yards per completion |
Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass impact |
Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
INT/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
Neg/Rush | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact |
Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact |
Offensive Play-by-Play Stats
Plays | Number of offensive plays |
%Pass | Percent pass plays |
EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition |
Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass adjusted for competition |
Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush adjusted for competition |
Exp Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
Exp Run | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
Exp Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition |
Exp Run+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition |
Comp% | Completion percentage |
Comp%+ | Completion percentage adjusted for competition |
Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass adjusted for competition |
Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
Int/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
Neg/Run | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition |
Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition |
Offensive Possession Stats
Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition |
Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
Start Spot | Average starting field position |
Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
Poss/Game | Possessions per game |
%RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
PPP | Points per Possession |
aPPP | Points per Possession allowed |
PPE | Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP) |
EP3+ | Expected Points per Possession |
aEP3+ | Expected Points per Possession allowed |
EP2E+ | Expected Points per Exchange |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per Pass |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per Rush |
aEPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Allowed per Pass |
aEPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Allowed per Rush |
Exp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass |
Exp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush |
aExp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass allowed |
aExp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush allowed |
BPR | A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
Power | A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference |
P-Top | The power ranking of the top teams in the conference |
P-Mid | The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference |
P-Bot | The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference |
SOS-Und | Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference |
SOS-BE | Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference |
Hybrid | A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences |
Player Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
oEPA | Defense-independent performance |
Team Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
EP3 | Effective points per possession (see glossary) |
oEP3 | Defense-independent offensive performance |
dEP3 | Offense-independent defensive performance |
EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
oEPA | Defense-independent offensive performance |
dEPA | Offense-independent defensive performance |
EPAp | Expected points added per play |
Nice work. I'm very pissed at the results of Saturday's games too. Instead of getting two teams that are relatively new to the elite national spotlight, we get an Ohio State team that has beaten? and an LSU team with two losses (oe of which was to an average at best kentucky team). Did I mention I hate both teams?
ReplyDeleteGood points on quarterbacks too. West Virginia looked listless with out White last night (although they didn't look great with him either) and Oregon's fall without Dixon is remarkable.
Unlike past years, I don't think we will have a champion. There is no 'best' team this year. There are about 5 or 6 good teams, but if OSU beats LSU in the BCS title game, I think you can still make a rational argument for a number of other teams. And if LSU wins the title with 2 losses?! I'm not sure if that has ever happened before.
One more thing. You alma mater should take some scheduling notes from Hawaii. Play some patsies, go 12-0 and play in a BCS bowl. I'm not gonna say Hawaii doesn't deserve a BCS bid (those are the rules, and none of the 3 ND team deserved their bid). I also have no doubt that BYU is a top-20 team and is just as good if not better team than Hawaii. They were very good last year too (witness their thrashing of Oregon). I hope Mendenhall stays there a while, it seems he has built a ream mid-major power.
Bronco Mendenhall has a cult following in Provo, and when you throw in the religious aspect, I don't think he'll be jumping ship any time soon. I see your point about scheduling pansies, but BYU has too much pride to go through with it. They'll keep trying to bring in Notre Dame and USC or Arizona and UCLA. For better or worse. I thought of this as a rebuilding year going in and I'm ecstatic with a 10-2 finish and conference championship. Last season was a real lost opportunity.
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