I think its important, before we get lost in the hype about certain teams this year, to look back at what these same teams did with their talent last year because, on average, more than 75% of the team is the same as last year. I'm using two measures that I developed to measure performance and reputation over the course of a season. Today, I'm focusing on the Big XII South.My big questions for the Big 12:
1) Is Tech ready for a breakout year?
2) Who will win the Red River Shootout?
3) Is Oklahoma State on the way up or down?
4) Who will win the Big 12 South?
1) Texas Tech spent most of the season down in the pack in the Big 12 South. After losing the shootout to Oklahoma State, Leach asked for more from the defense and, generally it delivered. With Graham and Crabtree putting up ridiculous numbers, Tech became a real force and arguably one of the better teams in the country. If Leach (the best offensive mind in college football?) can change the status quo in Lubbock on the defensive side of the ball, Tech can realize some pretty high expectations.
2) OU started the season in 2007, behind the ridiculous start of Bradford, in high form which it never again realized. If Mr. Melton is right and Sam is regressing toward a mean, OU could be in for a mediocre season. On the other hand, while UT finally showed some signs of life against Arizona State after a whipping by rival A&M, Colt is not getting any better and super recruiter Mack Brown has not been incredibly successful without the incredible hulk under center. For now, I'll go with the Sooners.
3) (Performance is the solid line and Reputation the dotted line). Oklahoma State? Over-Rated! Oklahoma State never achieved that high of a level last season despite touting "the best offense ever." I doubt expect anything more this next season. With money and flash, they are a popular dark horse, but popular opinion last year and this year continues to rank them in the middle of the pack where they belong. Don't get lost in the hype.
4) Who will win it--dare I say Texas Tech? No, I daren't. Tech will be very successful this season and win a lot of games, but I think Leach needs at least one more year to instill an attitude of expectations that produces the consistent play necessary to win a conference half-championship. This year, like every year, the Big 12 South is OU's to lose.
That's a pretty interesting analysis. That's neat that you can put all of this together. :)
ReplyDeleteI'd love to see the Red Raiders take the division. I just can't envision them winning in Norman. If they are gonna do it though, this will be their only chance for a while.
ReplyDeleteInteresting statements. I think the South is OU's to lose. Tech should have a fine year though.
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