I've always opposed the idea that the stature of the Big 10 has fallen because Yankees are slower on average than their southern counterparts. No one has ever provided me evidence to that effect. After Ohio State lost to LSU, I showed that speed was not the issue. Instead, I have argued that the South is benefiting from a growing talent pool (in terms of athletes, students, and donors) while the Midwest is hunting for minnows in a shallow, stagnant, and shrinking pond-its demography, not genetics, weather, or proximity to the Gulf of Mexico.
But Ohio State consistently gets the best talent from the Midwest and also pulls five star recruits from Florida. Their classes are as good, and as fast, as the classes that USC, Texas and Florida are grabbing. Ohio State was every bit as physically talented as USC but lost anyway. Why do they fold against top caliber teams?
The answer came to me while I was watching Ohio State's otherwise dominant defense collapse at the end of each half against USC. The Big 10, and especially its elite, do not condition the same way they do in the South. Its happened with the Buckeyes before. Texas went to a no-huddle hurry-up offense a year ago and the Ohio State D was barely staying upright by the end of the drive. Lack of conditioning, and perhaps even a lack of practice, make you look slow.
If Exhibit A is a fatigued Buckeye, Exhibit B is the Rich Rodriguez experience at Michigan. Rodriguez expects his players to practice and condition like everyone else and players start to rebel. Why? They haven't done it before. And now that they have taken on a big league conditioning regiment, Michigan is quickly looking like a contender again-they are faster at every position, even at positions that are still filled by Lloyd Carr guys.
Exhibit C: Notre Dame is in the Big 10 culturally if not physically. Notre Dame also recruits nationally, so the slowness of Yankees should not be a problem. But the knock on Notre Dame is their teams have been slow, right? But the real problem has not been raw speed-if you look at the Notre Dame recruiting classes for the last 8 years their classes have not been slower than, say, Navy or Syracuse. But they've looked slow recently because they haven't trained hard enough. They have suffered from both the Big 10 culture and Charlie Weis' self-constructed image as a super genius whose teams can outsmart others even if they are not as physically prepared.
This does not rule out depth as a possibility. While Big 10 teams can have some very good players, and Ohio State and Michigan can even field an entire first team of very good players, it is harder to get the depth of talent that a USC or Florida has (demography again). Lack of depth can make you look slow and can cause you to tire early.
BPR | A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
EPA (Expected Points Added) | Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play. |
EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession) | Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession. |
Adjusted for Competition | We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition |
Impact | see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent. |
[-] About this table
Includes the
top 180 QBs by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 240 RBs by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 300 Receivers by total plays
Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes
the
top 180 players by pass attempts)
3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
%Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
Includes the top 240 players by carries
YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
%Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
%Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
%Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
xxxx | xxxx |
...
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
Defensive Possession Stats
Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession impact |
Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
Start Spot | Average starting field position |
Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
%RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
Defensive Play-by-Play Stats
EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact |
Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass impact |
Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush impact |
Exp/Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
Exp/Rush | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
Exp/Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact |
Exp/Rush+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact |
Comp% | Completion percentage |
Comp%+ | Completion percentage impact |
Yards/Comp | Yards per completion |
Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass impact |
Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
INT/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
Neg/Rush | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact |
Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact |
Offensive Play-by-Play Stats
Plays | Number of offensive plays |
%Pass | Percent pass plays |
EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition |
Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass adjusted for competition |
Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush adjusted for competition |
Exp Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
Exp Run | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
Exp Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition |
Exp Run+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition |
Comp% | Completion percentage |
Comp%+ | Completion percentage adjusted for competition |
Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass adjusted for competition |
Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
Int/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
Neg/Run | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition |
Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition |
Offensive Possession Stats
Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition |
Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
Start Spot | Average starting field position |
Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
Poss/Game | Possessions per game |
%RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
PPP | Points per Possession |
aPPP | Points per Possession allowed |
PPE | Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP) |
EP3+ | Expected Points per Possession |
aEP3+ | Expected Points per Possession allowed |
EP2E+ | Expected Points per Exchange |
EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per Pass |
EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per Rush |
aEPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Allowed per Pass |
aEPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Allowed per Rush |
Exp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass |
Exp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush |
aExp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass allowed |
aExp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush allowed |
BPR | A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
Power | A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference |
P-Top | The power ranking of the top teams in the conference |
P-Mid | The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference |
P-Bot | The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference |
SOS-Und | Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference |
SOS-BE | Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference |
Hybrid | A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences |
Player Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
oEPA | Defense-independent performance |
Team Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
EP3 | Effective points per possession (see glossary) |
oEP3 | Defense-independent offensive performance |
dEP3 | Offense-independent defensive performance |
EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
oEPA | Defense-independent offensive performance |
dEPA | Offense-independent defensive performance |
EPAp | Expected points added per play |
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