I must me missing something... but admittedly I haven't spent a lot of time yet studying your website, so forgive me if this is a stupid question. For South Carolina, under Projected Results the scores seem to indicate 11 wins and a "tie" (19-19) vs Florida. But then at the bottom the Expected Record shows 10-2... ?
Expected record is calculated by adding up the win probabilities. For example, if a team has a 90% chance of winning all 12 games we would expect 10.8 wins (.9*12=10.8). Even though the team would be favored in every game there is a 75% chance they will lose at least one game. The projected win distribution chart gives you the probability of 12 wins, 11 wins, 10 wins, etc. Hope that helps.
I must me missing something... but admittedly I haven't spent a lot of time yet studying your website, so forgive me if this is a stupid question. For South Carolina, under Projected Results the scores seem to indicate 11 wins and a "tie" (19-19) vs Florida. But then at the bottom the Expected Record shows 10-2... ?
ReplyDeleteExpected record is calculated by adding up the win probabilities. For example, if a team has a 90% chance of winning all 12 games we would expect 10.8 wins (.9*12=10.8). Even though the team would be favored in every game there is a 75% chance they will lose at least one game. The projected win distribution chart gives you the probability of 12 wins, 11 wins, 10 wins, etc. Hope that helps.
DeleteOK, I see, that makes sense. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt's like looking in the cockpit of a 777. You're just glad the pilot knows what he's looking at. I'm fairly confident the Gamecocks win.
ReplyDeleteThanks . . . I think.
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