The Age Impact revisited

As I noted in an earlier post, the Age Impact is an attempt to improve on the returning starters concept. On top of the raw numbers of how many starters will be back with the team, the Age Impact also considers how productive those starters were and how much we can expect them to improve from year to year. Losing a quarterback hurts more than losing the #2 receiver, and freshman tend to improve more going into their sophomore season than juniors entering their senior campaign (the sophomore slump is about standard regression and nothing more). 

The Age Impact (AI) draws on those two concepts to predict variation in a team's total yards from year to year. For example, we can expect Wyoming's total yards to increase 15% from 2011. Syracuse, on the other hand, can expect a 9% decrease. Returning starters is one of a million variables that influence performance from season to season, but it does explain about 10% of season to season variation in total yards.

The last four columns are the percent of offensive production from each class. 

	Team	AI		FR	SO	JR	SR
1	Wyoming	15%		56%	14%	24%	6%
2	Marshall	14%		42%	39%	18%	1%
3	Indiana	14%		35%	56%	0%	9%
4	Oregon St.	13%		56%	7%	26%	11%
5	Rutgers	13%		43%	28%	24%	5%
6	Akron	12%		23%	59%	18%	0%
7	Louisville	12%		48%	17%	13%	21%
8	Memphis	11%		52%	13%	7%	29%
9	Texas	11%		43%	23%	23%	12%
10	Clemson	11%		26%	50%	24%	0%
11	Kansas	11%		28%	47%	14%	11%
12	Ohio St.	10%		45%	17%	14%	24%
13	Georgia	10%		28%	41%	26%	4%
14	Tennessee	9%		22%	53%	8%	17%
15	Ball St.	9%		16%	63%	5%	16%
16	Colorado St.	9%		18%	57%	7%	18%
17	UNLV	8%		20%	53%	4%	23%
18	Boston College	8%		6%	72%	15%	8%
19	South Carolina	8%		20%	47%	17%	16%
20	UAB	8%		16%	56%	7%	21%
21	Nebraska	7%		17%	46%	31%	5%
22	Virginia	7%		23%	40%	19%	18%
23	North Carolina	7%		24%	37%	17%	21%
24	UCF	7%		26%	31%	28%	15%
25	La.-Monroe	7%		4%	69%	21%	5%
26	Bowling Green	7%		18%	51%	1%	31%
27	New Mexico	6%		27%	21%	45%	6%
28	TCU	6%		9%	57%	26%	8%
29	Florida St.	6%		34%	9%	44%	12%
30	Tulane	6%		24%	28%	39%	9%
31	Iowa St.	6%		26%	25%	37%	12%
32	Washington	6%		16%	43%	25%	16%
33	Fresno St.	6%		6%	60%	25%	9%
34	Troy	6%		7%	55%	33%	5%
35	Illinois	5%		15%	49%	1%	36%
36	Army	5%		20%	27%	45%	8%
37	Missouri	5%		1%	65%	17%	17%
38	Alabama	4%		6%	51%	26%	17%
39	Connecticut	4%		33%	0%	46%	21%
40	Washington St.	4%		29%	16%	11%	44%
41	Auburn	4%		13%	31%	53%	3%
42	Central Mich.	3%		24%	12%	50%	14%
43	Mississippi	3%		19%	22%	40%	18%
44	USC	3%		22%	15%	53%	11%
45	BYU	3%		5%	49%	27%	19%
46	Wake Forest	3%		2%	54%	25%	19%
47	Maryland	3%		8%	47%	20%	26%
48	Kentucky	3%		24%	11%	50%	15%
49	LSU	3%		15%	33%	18%	35%
50	Ohio	2%		2%	56%	5%	37%
51	Miami (Ohio)	2%		13%	26%	50%	11%
52	Oregon	2%		23%	5%	62%	10%
53	Nevada	2%		29%	10%	9%	52%
54	San Diego St.	2%		3%	54%	5%	38%
55	Louisiana Tech	2%		27%	1%	53%	20%
56	Middle Tenn. St.	2%		3%	44%	32%	21%
57	North Texas	2%		7%	43%	15%	36%
58	West Virginia	1%		14%	18%	59%	10%
59	Vanderbilt	1%		13%	19%	52%	15%
60	Kansas St.	1%		6%	27%	63%	4%
61	Pittsburgh	1%		15%	11%	67%	7%
62	Penn St.	0%		1%	39%	41%	18%
63	Oklahoma	0%		5%	32%	46%	17%
64	Virginia Tech	0%		2%	39%	32%	26%
65	Notre Dame	0%		1%	41%	32%	26%
66	Iowa	0%		9%	22%	51%	19%
67	Utah St.	0%		19%	5%	51%	25%
68	La.-Lafayette	0%		13%	11%	61%	15%
69	Kent St.	0%		21%	2%	49%	29%
70	Toledo	0%		1%	39%	31%	28%
71	Hawaii	0%		12%	26%	13%	49%
72	South Fla.	0%		9%	13%	75%	2%
73	Rice	0%		5%	36%	21%	39%
74	UTEP	0%		16%	14%	35%	36%
75	Mississippi St.	-1%		11%	26%	18%	46%
76	Eastern Mich.	-1%		7%	22%	57%	15%
77	Northwestern	-1%		10%	30%	5%	55%
78	Duke	-1%		11%	14%	57%	19%
79	East Caro.	-1%		14%	20%	12%	53%
80	Texas Tech	-1%		11%	10%	67%	12%
81	Minnesota	-1%		17%	3%	49%	31%
82	Miami (Fla.)	-2%		5%	33%	16%	47%
83	Buffalo	-2%		2%	40%	1%	57%
84	Michigan	-2%		1%	26%	54%	18%
85	Utah	-2%		11%	1%	84%	4%
86	Georgia Tech	-2%		10%	10%	57%	23%
87	San Jose St.	-2%		8%	25%	11%	56%
88	Fla. Atlantic	-2%		13%	7%	43%	37%
89	Purdue	-2%		7%	13%	60%	21%
90	Western Ky.	-2%		13%	7%	46%	34%
91	New Mexico St.	-3%		13%	11%	29%	48%
92	Florida	-3%		12%	17%	9%	62%
93	Southern Miss.	-3%		11%	15%	19%	55%
94	California	-3%		1%	21%	61%	18%
95	Florida Int'l	-3%		8%	22%	13%	57%
96	Oklahoma St.	-3%		5%	23%	22%	49%
97	Cincinnati	-3%		6%	23%	13%	57%
98	Wisconsin	-3%		4%	25%	23%	48%
99	Tulsa	-3%		2%	27%	25%	45%
100	Arkansas St.	-3%		9%	4%	65%	22%
101	Temple	-3%		2%	20%	46%	32%
102	Western Mich.	-4%		1%	18%	45%	36%
103	Baylor	-5%		1%	12%	59%	28%
104	Colorado	-5%		12%	10%	0%	78%
105	Boise St.	-5%		9%	10%	10%	71%
106	Arkansas	-5%		2%	6%	65%	27%
107	UCLA	-6%		2%	7%	61%	30%
108	SMU	-6%		9%	3%	31%	57%
109	North Carolina St.	-6%		11%	2%	24%	64%
110	Arizona St.	-6%		1%	6%	65%	28%
111	Northern Ill.	-6%		5%	14%	15%	67%
112	Navy	-6%		0%	16%	27%	57%
113	Michigan St.	-6%		2%	17%	10%	71%
114	Arizona	-7%		9%	4%	9%	77%
115	Stanford	-7%		4%	4%	33%	59%
116	Texas A&M	-7%		2%	6%	31%	61%
117	Idaho	-8%		0%	12%	22%	65%
118	Houston	-8%		2%	10%	4%	83%
119	Air Force	-8%		2%	5%	26%	68%
120	Syracuse	-9%		1%	6%	12%	80%