Four interceptions and a sub-.500 completion percentage, combined with fewer than 3 yards per carry, is not going to beat Oregon. Three interceptions and a sub-.500 completion percentage, combined with 3.5 yards per carry will get you one failed two-point conversion attempt from beating Boise State. Turns out Oregon is still Oregon and Arizona is still Arizona, and BYU and Boise State have devolved into hideous, offense-less monstrosities.
I said the first team to 35 would win the Baylor-ULM game, and I thought it would be Baylor. I was wrong. Baylor was first to 34, ULM beat them to 35, and then Baylor won. I think Briles did that just to mess with me. Then, Arkansas loses by 52 to Alabama, it loses to Rutgers with Tyler Wilson, and Auburn almost beats LSU, and we still have no idea just how good ULM really is. That reminds me, Rutgers beat Arkansas. And in other news, Rutgers beat Arkansas.
Tulane almost doubled their season average in rushing yards against Ole Miss . . . and lost. They lost because they almost doubled 8 to get to 14. Fourteen rushing yards for the game. Did I mention they lost. And Rutgers beat Arkansas.
Directional Michigan played three games on Saturday against BCS conference opponents. Central Michigan beat Iowa, Western Michigan beat Connecticut, and Eastern Michigan beat Michigan State (for the first half). By my records, 11 times in the history of the world has Directional Michigan gone 3-0 on the same day while playing in the highest division of college football. A second half win by Eastern Michigan would have made a perfect game in baseball look like a cornfield in Iowa. And not the kind that's been turned into a baseball field.
Three days ago I gave Colorado less than a 50% chance of winning a game. Saturday they won a game. I now give them a better than 50% chance of winning a game this season. It's a bit too early draw any conclusions about the Leach experiment at Washington St, but Leach really did not want to lose to Colorado.
Western Kentucky has made the turnaround from being the worst team and possibly the nation's worst program in 2009 to a projected 9-3 record in 2012. I don't have anything interesting to say about this but gosh, that's neat.
| BPR | A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
| EPA (Expected Points Added) | Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play. |
| EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession) | Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession. |
| Adjusted for Competition | We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition |
| Impact | see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent. |
[-] About this table
Includes the
top 180 QBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 240 RBs by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes the
top 300 Receivers by total plays
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
Includes
the
top 180 players by pass attempts)
| 3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
| SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
| Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
| Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
| %Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
| Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
Includes the top 240 players by carries
| YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
| CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
| %Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
| %Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
| Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
| Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
| Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
| Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
| %Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
| Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
| Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
| Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
Includes the top 300 players by targets
| xxxx | xxxx |
...
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
Includes players with a significant number of attempts
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
| Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
Defensive Possession Stats
| Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
| EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
| EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession impact |
| Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
| Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
| Start Spot | Average starting field position |
| Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
| TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
| TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
| FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
| %RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
| Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
| TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
| FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
| Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
Defensive Play-by-Play Stats
| EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
| EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact |
| Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
| Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
| Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass impact |
| Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush impact |
| Exp/Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
| Exp/Rush | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
| Exp/Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact |
| Exp/Rush+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact |
| Comp% | Completion percentage |
| Comp%+ | Completion percentage impact |
| Yards/Comp | Yards per completion |
| Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
| Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass impact |
| Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
| INT/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
| Neg/Rush | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
| Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact |
| Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
| Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
| Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
| Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact |
Offensive Play-by-Play Stats
| Plays | Number of offensive plays |
| %Pass | Percent pass plays |
| EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
| EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition |
| Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
| Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
| Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass adjusted for competition |
| Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush adjusted for competition |
| Exp Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
| Exp Run | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
| Exp Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition |
| Exp Run+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition |
| Comp% | Completion percentage |
| Comp%+ | Completion percentage adjusted for competition |
| Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
| Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass adjusted for competition |
| Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
| Int/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
| Neg/Run | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
| Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition |
| Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
| Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
| Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
| Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition |
Offensive Possession Stats
| Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
| EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
| EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition |
| Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
| Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
| Start Spot | Average starting field position |
| Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
| TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
| TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
| FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
| Poss/Game | Possessions per game |
| %RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
| Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
| TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
| FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
| Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
| PPP | Points per Possession |
| aPPP | Points per Possession allowed |
| PPE | Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP) |
| EP3+ | Expected Points per Possession |
| aEP3+ | Expected Points per Possession allowed |
| EP2E+ | Expected Points per Exchange |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per Pass |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per Rush |
| aEPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Allowed per Pass |
| aEPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Allowed per Rush |
| Exp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass |
| Exp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush |
| aExp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass allowed |
| aExp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush allowed |
| BPR | A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
| Power | A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference |
| P-Top | The power ranking of the top teams in the conference |
| P-Mid | The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference |
| P-Bot | The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference |
| SOS-Und | Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference |
| SOS-BE | Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference |
| Hybrid | A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences |
Player Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values. By default, the table is filtered to only the top 200 defense-independent performances (oEPA). The table includes the 5,000 most important performances (positive and negative) by EPA.
| EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
| oEPA | Defense-independent performance |
Team Game Log
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
Use the yellow, red and green cells to filter values. Yellow cells filter for exact matches, green cells for greater values and red cells for lesser values.
| EP3 | Effective points per possession (see glossary) |
| oEP3 | Defense-independent offensive performance |
| dEP3 | Offense-independent defensive performance |
| EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
| oEPA | Defense-independent offensive performance |
| dEPA | Offense-independent defensive performance |
| EPAp | Expected points added per play |
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