First down on 3 carries measures the probability that a back would get 10 yards on 3 carries (and keep a drive going) based on an estimated distribution of their yards per carry. Of qualified backs (at least 36 carries) Johnathan Franklin is still leading the pack. FIU's Kedrick Rhodes is a surprise #2, with only 4.9 yards per carry, but a real life example of the situation described above. Rhodes has a 92% of getting at least 2 yards when he gets the ball but only a 7.4% chance of getting 10 yards. Instead, he consistently gets around 4 or 5. For more First down on 3 carries results go to Individual: Stats above, click on Qual under Runners, and sort by First down on 3 carries.
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