| BPR | A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
| EPA (Expected Points Added) | Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play. |
| EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession) | Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession. |
| Adjusted for Competition | We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition |
| Impact | see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent. |
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
| Total <=0 | Percent of plays that are negative or no gain |
| Total >=10 | Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Total >=25 | Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0 |
| 3rdLComp% |
Completion % on 3rd and long (7+
yards) |
| SitComp% |
Standardized completion % for
down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by
the national average of pass plays by down and distance. |
| Pass <=0 | Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain |
| Pass >=10 | Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards |
| Pass >=25 | Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0 |
| %Sacks |
Ratio of sacks to pass plays |
| Bad INTs |
Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down
early before the last minute of the half |
| YPC1stD |
Yards per carry on 1st down |
| CPCs |
Conversions (1st down/TD) per
carry in short yardage situations - the team 3 or fewer yards for a 1st
down or touchdown |
| %Team Run |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries |
| %Team RunS |
Player's carries as a percent of team's carries in short
yardage situations |
| Run <=0 |
Percent of running plays that
are negative or no gain |
| Run >=10 |
Percent of running plays that
gain 10 or more yards |
| Run >=25 | Percent of running plays that gain 25 or more yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Run >=10 to Run <=0 |
| Conv/T 3rd | Conversions per target on 3rd Downs |
| Conv/T PZ | Touchdowns per target inside the 10 yardline |
| %Team PZ | Percent of team's targets inside the 10 yardline |
| Rec <=0 | Percent of targets that go for negative yards or no net gain |
| Rec >=10 | Percent of targets that go for 10+ yards |
| Rec >=25 | Percent of targets that go for 25+ yards |
| 10 to 0 | Ratio of Rec>=0 to Rec<=0 |
| xxxx | xxxx |
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
| NEPA | "Net Expected Points Added": (expected points after play - expected points before play)-(opponent's expected points after play - opponent's expected points before play). Uses the expected points for the current possession and the opponent's next possession based on down, distance and spot |
| NEPA/PP | Average NEPA per play |
| Max/Min | Single game high and low |
| Adjusted | Reports the per game EPA adjusted for the strength of schedule. |
| Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
| EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
| EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession impact |
| Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
| Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
| Start Spot | Average starting field position |
| Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
| TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
| TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
| FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
| %RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
| Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
| TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
| FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
| Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
| EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
| EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt impact |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt impact |
| Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
| Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
| Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass impact |
| Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush impact |
| Exp/Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
| Exp/Rush | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
| Exp/Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass impact |
| Exp/Rush+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush impact |
| Comp% | Completion percentage |
| Comp%+ | Completion percentage impact |
| Yards/Comp | Yards per completion |
| Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
| Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass impact |
| Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
| INT/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
| Neg/Rush | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
| Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush impact |
| Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
| Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
| Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
| Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance impact |
| Plays | Number of offensive plays |
| %Pass | Percent pass plays |
| EPA/Pass | Expected Points Added per pass attempt |
| EPA/Rush | Expected Points Added per rush attempt |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per pass attempt adjusted for competition |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per rush attempt adjusted for competition |
| Yards/Pass | Yards per pass |
| Yards/Rush | Yards per rush |
| Yards/Pass+ | Yards per pass adjusted for competition |
| Yards/Rush+ | Yards per rush adjusted for competition |
| Exp Pass | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass |
| Exp Run | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush |
| Exp Pass+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per pass adjusted for competition |
| Exp Run+ | Explosive plays (25+ yards) per rush adjusted for competition |
| Comp% | Completion percentage |
| Comp%+ | Completion percentage adjusted for competition |
| Sack/Pass | Sacks per pass |
| Sack/Pass+ | Sacks per pass adjusted for competition |
| Sack/Pass* | Sacks per pass on passing downs |
| Int/Pass | Interceptions per pass |
| Neg/Run | Negative plays (<=0) per rush |
| Neg/Run+ | Negative plays (<=0) per rush adjusted for competition |
| Run Short | % Runs in short yardage situations |
| Convert% | 3rd/4th down conversions |
| Conv%* | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance |
| Conv%+ | 3rd/4th down conversions versus average by distance adjusted for competition |
| Points/Poss | Offensive points per possession |
| EP3 | Effective Points per Possession |
| EP3+ | Effective Points per Possession adjusted for competition |
| Plays/Poss | Plays per possession |
| Yards/Poss | Yards per possession |
| Start Spot | Average starting field position |
| Time of Poss | Average time of possession (in seconds) |
| TD/Poss | Touchdowns per possession |
| TO/Poss | Turnovers per possession |
| FGA/Poss | Attempted field goals per possession |
| Poss/Game | Possessions per game |
| %RZ | Red zone trips per possession |
| Points/RZ | Average points per red zone trip. Field Goals are included using expected points, not actual points. |
| TD/RZ | Touchdowns per red zone trip |
| FGA/RZ | Field goal attempt per red zone trip |
| Downs/RZ | Turnover on downs per red zone trip |
| PPP | Points per Possession |
| aPPP | Points per Possession allowed |
| PPE | Points per Exchange (PPP-aPPP) |
| EP3+ | Expected Points per Possession |
| aEP3+ | Expected Points per Possession allowed |
| EP2E+ | Expected Points per Exchange |
| EPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Added per Pass |
| EPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Added per Rush |
| aEPA/Pass+ | Expected Points Allowed per Pass |
| aEPA/Rush+ | Expected Points Allowed per Rush |
| Exp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass |
| Exp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush |
| aExp/Pass | Explosive Plays per Pass allowed |
| aExp/Rush | Explosive Plays per Rush allowed |
| BPR | A method for ranking conferences based only on their wins and losses and the strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation. |
| Power | A composite measure that is the best predictor of future game outcomes, averaged across all teams in the conference |
| P-Top | The power ranking of the top teams in the conference |
| P-Mid | The power ranking of the middling teams in the conference |
| P-Bot | The power ranking of the worst teams in the conference |
| SOS-Und | Strength of Schedule - Undefeated. Focuses on the difficulty of going undefeated, averaged across teams in the conference |
| SOS-BE | Strength of Schedule - Bowl Eligible. Focuses on the difficulty of becoming bowl eligible, averaged across teams in the conference |
| Hybrid | A composite measure that quantifies human polls, applied to converences |
| EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
| oEPA | Defense-independent performance |
| EP3 | Effective points per possession (see glossary) |
| oEP3 | Defense-independent offensive performance |
| dEP3 | Offense-independent defensive performance |
| EPA | Expected points added (see glossary) |
| oEPA | Defense-independent offensive performance |
| dEPA | Offense-independent defensive performance |
| EPAp | Expected points added per play |
please get back to me. I wanted to know why your predicted box score changes after the game has been played? and whats the percentage mean?
ReplyDelete1) When you are commenting a) do not demand a response and b) if you are going to represent something someone else said do so accurately. Personal pet peeves.
Delete2) That being said, it is the Expected Box Score, not the predicted box score. That's an important distinction. A prediction is a probabilistic statement about a future outcome. A expectation is a hypothetical average. If they played the game a billion times, the model "expects" that to be the average outcome. When new data becomes available, the model adjusts its expectations.
3) A percentage is the expected positive outcomes from 100 tries. There are a lot of percentages on this site. In order to answer your question I need to know what percentage, specifically, you want interpreted.
Scott, Let me say first of all I did not mean to demand anything from you guys, nor was I trying to be rude or pushy. I do apologize if I came off sadistic or said anything derogatory about your site, no harm intended. I use your site a lot and have a great appreciation for it and the information provided herein. Sorry about the wording and the question I had about the percentage was after the game has been played and the result of the game has been posted by the expected box score it has a percentage. Sometimes it is a negative, other times positive. I do not understand what the percentage represents. Example: actual score 31-12, expected box score 34-13 +59%. That was all. Sorry that I came off as a rude #$%. I meant no harm or ill-will. Your site has great information through out and has helped me tremendously. This is just an attempt to understand it better for the guys like me who have a small cranium, lol. Thanks a million and I can't wait to here back. Have a good one my friend.
ReplyDeleteNo worries. I'm just a bit anal about a few things.
DeleteThat percentage is the wins added above expected. For example, if a team has a 50% chance of winning each of its games we would expect them to win 6 games over a 12 game season. If that team wins its first game we would now expect them to win 6.5 games (11*.5+1). That win then add 50% of a win above expected. Upsets add more (higher percentage) easy wins add less. Its just a quick way of comparing a team's season rating - how well the season has gone in terms of wins and losses - and its power rating - how good a team actually is.
ok, I get it now. Your just a little too smart for me. Thanks very much for answering that. It was really confusing. I appreciate your patience and keep up the good work my man. Much love for this site and the work you do.
ReplyDeleteGlad I could help. And I do appreciate the questions - it means people are checking out the site - so I'm usually not a prick in my responses.
DeleteBy the way, I'm not smarter than anyone; I know the answers because I made the stuff up. Glad you appreciate the site and I hope you keep coming back.
Certianly will sir. You have bben very helpful. I'ts much appreciated.
Delete