Kansas State's offense is REALLY good

I listen each week to The Solid Verbal's preview podcast. They do a great job covering college football as very well-informed fans, which is rare. But even when drawing on that wealth of knowledge they have accumulated over the years, sometimes they are very wrong.

I apologize in advance because I have a hard time differentiating between the co-hosts, but this week one of the two, either Ty Hildenbrandt or Dan Rubenstein, picked Oklahoma State to beat Kansas State on the grounds that Kansas State will eventually lose because "despite being very solid on defense, I still have questions about their offense". [Correction: Ty Hildenbrandt has informed me that 1) these are his words and 2) he did not pick OSU to pull off the upset but that he was generally concerned KSU was too dependent on Klein.] He then added that they could be beat if a team figured out a way to take Collin Klein out of the game. Unless you're willing to take a crowbar to his knees, it's about time people recognized that you can't just take Collin Klein out of the offense, and with Klein, Kansas State has the best offense in the country. And it's not that close.

That's a bold claim, especially when Kansas State is only 5th nationally in points per game (ahead of Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, all teams that are/were supposed to give Kansas State trouble because they could outscore the Wildcats. Absurd). For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to assume that most would argue Oregon has the nation's best offense, and I will focus the analysis on comparing Kansas State to Oregon. (Spoiler: Kansas State wins!)

Let's begin with points per possession. Because teams take turns with the ball, we should really focus more on points per possession and less on points per game. Kansas State leads the country in points per possession, and its not close - 3.86 points per possession for the Wildcats versus 3.47 for 2nd place Oregon. Kansas State has scored touchdowns on 50% of its possessions. At Oregon's game speed, they would have needed to score 50 more points, one complete game, to keep pace with Kansas State.

The follow up is that Oregon pulls starters early in games with big leads. First, if you haven't been paying attention, Kansas State has also been playing from ahead all season (Klein is in on 65% of 2nd half possessions). Second, the stats still add up for Kansas State. The EP3+ is a measure of performance designed, among other things, to adjust for the quality of the competition and the whether or not the game is still competitive. And what team has the top rated offense according to the EP3+? Kansas State. And it's not close. Alabama also finishes ahead of the Ducks. (Oregon scores significantly higher on defense, because Oregon has a better defense than Kansas State.)

Now Oregon does have a solid lead on Kansas State is yards per rush: 6.2 to Kansas State's measly 5.5. But it is no secret that the Kansas State offense has played a tougher schedule than Oregon's. When we adjust those numbers for the strength of opposing defenses, Oregon's advantage shrinks to .35 yards per carry. Kansas State sits in 6th place and Oregon falls to 2nd behind Johnny Football and company.

When we look at passing the ball, the Kansas State advantage is glaring. Collin Klein averages around 9.8 yards per pass - almost a first down per attempt. Oregon? 7.4 yards per pass is good enough for 63rd nationally. Oregon falls to 67th nationally when we adjust for the defense while Kansas State climbs to #2.

And why is the Kansas State passing attack so efficient? Besides being a human wrecking ball, Collin Klein is the most accurate passer in college football. Klein is 4th in raw completion percentage, but when we adjust for yards per catch and the strength of the opponent's pass defense, he comes out #1. He also leads the country in EPA and NEPA. And consider this: Kansas State is drawing on its biggest strength, Collin Klein's arm, on only 33% of plays while Oregon is running the ball 65% of the time. In addition to the EP3+ stats I cited earlier, it is on these grounds that I dismiss the argument that Oregon's offense is better but they haven't really been trying.

But the Kansas State offense is boring and predictable, right? Oregon averages 27.9 explosive plays (>25 yards) per 100 possessions. Kansas State? 32.6. If we look only at the first half (both Kansas State and Oregon starters accumulate stats on more than 94% of 1st half possessions), Oregon climbs to 32.6, but Kansas State inches up as well to 33.3 explosive plays per 100 possessions.

On top of all that, Kansas State does the little things well. Only three teams have fewer penalty yards per game, only 1 has fewer turnovers per possession, and nobody in the country has a better average starting field position. Oregon, on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the country in turnovers per possession and penalty yards per game, and 23rd in average starting field position.

So Kansas State scores more points when they get the ball, they get more yards per play, they get more big plays, and they do fewer things to shoot themselves in the foot; and the do these things late in games, early in games and, I presume, in the middle of games. Q.E.D.

You can contact Scott at scott@cfbtn.com if you want to let him know how smart and clever you think he is. If you want to tell him he's doing a terrible job, send your thoughts to genechizik@auburn.umd.edu