Statistical Review: UTSA #89

UTSA is the first team in this statistical review series to have a winning record, 8-4, but don't read to much into that. The wins came against [South] Alabama, Texas A&M[-Commerce], Georgia [State], Texas [State], [NW] Oklahoma (see what I did there), McNeese State, Idaho, and New Mexico State. Not exactly a who's who of college football. On a play-by-play or drive-by-drive basis, UTSA was as bad as any team in the country, but they played the softest "FBS schedule" in decades and won the games they could win.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Maryland #90

If you count Danny O'Brien, who transferred away a year removed from being the ACC Rookie of the Year, Maryland went through 6 quarterbacks (or 5 quarterbacks and a linebacker) in 2012. And injuries behind center played a major role in Maryland's struggles; the Terps completed only 54% of their passes in 2012, and Shawn Petty (who can double as a linebacker and quarterback and, I'd assume, race car driver if needed) completed only 46% over the last four games.

Perry Hills stepped in for the best quarterback on campus, C.J. Brown. He averaged just under 8 yards per attempt, threw more TDs than INTs (but just barely), and had a QB rating equal to Everett Golson's, who was good enough to not prevent his team from playing for a national championship (and losing terribly). He had an EPA on passing plays of 31.9 and .190 per pass play, but he added -14 yards on 70 rush attempts to bring his total EPA below 0 (this is foreshadowing of the bigger point).

Shawn Petty, a high school quarterback, was definitely less dynamic as a passer, but he threw only 2 INTs and managed a positive EPA on pass plays (meaning that he was better than average, if slightly so). He did manage positive rushing yards, but Petty, the high school option quarterback, was weighed down by .24 yards per rush attempt and 3.5 rush yards per game - not exactly Johnny Manziel numbers.

So, while Hills, Burns, Rowe and Petty were unspectacular, injuries and inexperience at QB were a much smaller part of the story than one might assume. The Maryland offense averaged only 2.5 fewer points per game in Petty's four starts than in the seven with Hills behind center. The bigger story was an inability to control the line of scrimmage; Maryland was 121st nationally in sacks per pass, TFL per run play, and yards per rush (2.6). On one hand, a more explosive passing game would pull defenders out of the box, but on the other hand, 39 sacks is a good way to get your QB knocked out of the game.

The defense was solid if unspectacular.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

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Statistical Review: Auburn #91

Auburn was a screwed up team, and they only got more screwed up as the season went on - first game Auburn was almost 20 points better than last game Auburn. Instead of trying to make sense of 2012 Auburn, I'm just going to make a "brief" list of all the ways in which they were not up to snuff:

Sacks (offense) - The Auburn quarterbacks were sacked on almost 15% of pass attempts; 44 FBS teams were sacked a third as often or less. Who gets the blame? Since both Frazier and Moseley were sacked more than 15% of the time, the problem is deeper than a quarterback that holds the ball too long.

Tackles for Loss (offense) - Ball carriers got back to the line of scrimmage less than 80% of the time, and we're building a strong case that the Auburn O-line was ineffective.

Plays per Possession (offense) - Plays per possession is not unambiguously bad; Oregon's offensive strategy does not revolve around maintaining long drives. But 4.6 plays per possession is not going to get you far unless you have an incredibly explosive offense (definitely not the case here) or great starting field position . . .

Field Position (offense) - There is a relatively exclusive group of teams that started inside their own 30 on average. Auburn is one of those teams.

Points per possession (offense) - This is the culmination of the first few points. Auburn averaged 1.4 points per possession. Twenty teams averaged twice that, including three teams in their conference and two in their division. That makes it hard to win games.

Completion % (defense) - Opponents completed two-thirds of their pass attempts. That's not very good.

Interceptions (defense) - 2. Total.

Auburn was quite stellar in one area - defending kicks. Maybe they can build on that for 2013.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Houston #92

Two [football programs], both alike in [going through a coaching change],
In fair [Texas], where we lay our scene,
From ancient grudge break to new mutiny,
Where civil blood makes civil hands unclean.
From forth the fatal loins of these two foes
A pair of star [quarterbacks] take their [game to the NFL];

Program A gets a new coaching staff and loses its quarterback to the NFL. They follow up a 13 win season with 5 wins in 2012. In ONE game three different quarterbacks throw two interceptions each.

Program B gets a new coaching staff and loses its quarterback to the NFL. They go 11-2 after losing 6 games in 2011. Their new quarterback throws only 9 picks all season . . . and wins the Heisman.

Yeah, if I were a Houston fan I'd hate A&M, too.

At this point it shouldn't surprise you that Houston suffered at the hand of the turnover. They added 15 fumbles lost to their 20 interceptions. But the defense forced 31 turnovers, so Houston actually had a better turnover margin than Texas A&M.

Outside of the turnovers, the Houston offense was typical. They averaged 32 points per game (a far cry from 49 a year ago), but needed almost 16 possessions per game, the most nationally, to score those points. The offense was also plagued by bad starting field position, more than 72 yards from the opponents' end zone (even though the defense forced two and a half turnovers per game).

The defense was fairly typical. They were fairly bad at defending the run. But they were among the worst in the country at getting stops on third down. But the real story of the Houston Cougar 2012 season is turnovers. The defense forced five or more in three games and at least two in nine of 12. The offense, on the other had, turned the ball over 15 times total in two games and 10 more times in another three games combined. These games are not being decided by yards per carry.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: South Florida #93

The 2012 football season was probably the worst in the history of the program (the 2004 team had a slightly better record but was quite dismal as well). They won only one game in conference and lost nine of their last ten games, the last three by a combined 72 points. On the other hand, they were outscored on average by less than a touchdown. Their power ranking was 21 spots better than their hybrid ranking (72 versus 93) which means that they were a better team then their record suggests (better, not good).

The most substantial flaw of the 2012 squad was a painful in ability to force turnovers - no team benefited less from turnovers than the Bulls. They picked off two passes all season and were dead last nationally in picks per pass. They matched that by being 103rd nationally in forced fumbles per play. Offensively, they turned the ball over on 19.3% of possessions (119th nationally) - but this number is slightly inflated because South Florida averaged more plays per possession than most (more on this below), and therefore had more opportunities to turn the ball over.

The South Florida offense was not proficient - B.J. Daniels completed 57% of his passes and the leading rusher, Demetris Murray, averaged less than 4 yards per carry. But their 106th ranking in points per game is misleading. The Bulls played faster than most but averaged only 12 possessions per game (112th nationally). This disparity between tempo and possessions (usually teams that play at a higher tempo average more possessions per game) is a product of long drives, both by South Florida and their opponents. South Florida averaged 5.7 plays per possession and their opponents averaged 5.8. These long drives can be attributed to bad third down defense (opponents completed better than 68% of their passes) and relatively good third down offense, both of which extend drives, and terrible starting field position offensively - only one team in the country started drives closer to their own end zone on average.

A few more turnovers and a few more stops on third down, giving Daniels better field position to work with, and the long South Florida drives would have resulted in more touchdowns (they were 12th nationally in field goals per possession). South Florida lost 3 games by 4 or fewer points, the difference between a touchdown and a field goal. In short, 6-6, a bowl invite, and another season for Holtz Junior were more than feasible; but alas, 3-9 was their fate.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Statistical Review: Air Force #94

To say that Air Force was good at getting running plays passed the line the scrimmage and bad at getting the ball 25 or more yards downfield is not revealing. You might not have known that Air Force had the nation's worst production from field goals. Defensively, Air Force had a bend but don't break defense that did too much bending, especially in the passing game; not too long ago, their pass-D could hang with the nation's most prolific passing offenses.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/15/13

Ranking teams 1 to 124 by longest streak - most consecutive offensive plays without an offensive score) in 2012

Daily Dose, 4/14/13

Ranking teams 1 to 124 by longest streak - most consecutive offensive plays without an offensive score) in 2012  

Daily Dose, 4/13/13

Ranking teams 1 to 124 by longest streak - most consecutive offensive plays without an offensive score) in 2012

Statistical Review: Western Michigan #95

The Western Michigan season was haunted by turnovers - both possessions they gave away and the inability to force turnovers on defense - and big pass plays by the opposition. In other respects they were at least decent, and they were downright respectable on offensively on third downs and at keeping defenses out of their backfield. But big plays and turnovers can make or break a season.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/12/13

Ranking teams 1 to 124 by longest streak - most consecutive offensive plays without an offensive score) in 2012

Statistical Review: Washington State #96

The popular knock of Leach's teams at Texas Tech was that a team using the Air Raid offense couldn't play good defense. I never understood the connection - even a backwards school like Tech uses different players and coaches on offense and defense. But the Wazzu defense was far from terrible. They were actually pretty good at getting in opponents' backfields and preventing big plays. On the other hand, Washington State did very little well offensively. No team was worse in any aspect of the game than they were at preventing tackles for loss. They were inefficient throwing the ball, too, and turned the ball over more than most. No one was more excited than I when I heard Leach was finally getting another shot, but it now looks to me like Bobby Knight to Texas Tech - a decade-late hire.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/11/13

Consecutive offensive plays without an offensive touchdown:

Daily Dose, 4/10/13

West Virginia allowed 5.57 more yards per pass play than per run play. The second largest gap was Arkansas at 4.81 and only 6 teams had a gap over 4.

Statistical Review: Buffalo #97

Outside of an unusual ability to get to opposing quarterbacks, Buffalo was outrageously average on defense. Offense was a different story. A bad story. A story that involves completing 52% of passes.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/9/13

Most efficient red zone performances

Statistical Review: Miami (OH) #98

It's hard to overcome bad run defense. Miami allowed 5.5 rush yards per attempt and 241 rush yards per game. And Miami didn't overcome bad run defense. It didn't help that the bad run defense was matched with a not quite as incapable run offense.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/8/13

Most red zone possessions in a game without a red zone score.

Statistical Review: North Texas #99

North Texas was typically bad in every respect but two: they avoided sacks better than everyone and they were fairly good at avoiding turnovers (which is related to the first).

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose, 4/7/13

Louisiana Tech reached the red zone 84 times in 2012. New Mexico State did the same 24 times.

Daily Dose, 4/6/13

Points per red zone possession

 

Daily Dose, 4/5/13

Points per red zone possession.

Statistical Review: Kentucky #100

Kentucky games in 2012 were notably devoid of explosive plays. They were also relatively devoid of good 3rd down defense (because Kentucky was so terrible).

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.

Daily Dose of Statistical Minutiae, 4/4/13

Teams with the lowest rates of lost fumbles in 2012:

Statistical Review: Wyoming #101

The Wyoming offense was downright average. Brett Smith completed 62% of his passes and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Things went less well went the Cowboys wanted to run the ball. But the real issue for Wyoming was pass defense and it's next of kin, 3rd down defense.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions in the table below.

Daily Dose of Statistical Minutiae, 4/3/13

Teams with the highest rates of lost fumbles in 2012:

Statistical Review: Memphis #102

Defensively, Memphis wasn't terrible. They were fairly good against the run and completely unexceptional against the pass, but downright horrific when defending third downs. Things didn't better on third downs when they had the ball, either.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions in the table below.

Daily Dose of Statistical Minutiae, 4/2/13

Statistical Review: Texas State #103

For Texas State's inaugural FBS campaign there is only one question that matters: When a team finish 102nd in yards per game but 67th in points can they repeat it? The follow up is this: How does a team score almost 30 points per game while averaging 4.7 plays/possession? Texas State was slightly above average in the number of explosive plays (25+ yards) on offense (about 1 in 20), a stat that is predictive (a team that scores well one season is more likely to score well the next season), and a healthy +32 on turnovers, a stat that is less predictive. In all, unless the defense stops being terrible, in 2013 we should expect an average point margin of -5 to grow to -10 as the scoring dips.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions in the table below.

Daily Dose of Statistical Minutiae, 4/1/13

Opponent record and win percentage against all other opponents.

Statistical Review: Boston College #104

Boston College has the proud distinction of being one of 5 FBS teams in 2012 that scored fewer than 20 points per game but also allowed fewer than 30. One FBS win, scoring fewer than 20 points per game and losing by less than 10 points per game is the college football fans nightmare scenario; the sports equivalent of a slow motion exsanguination. BC mimicked that slow blood loss with their style of play. Defensively, BC was solid against the run and not terrible against the pass, but no team in college football was less successful at getting in opponents' backfields. Offensively, they lacked a running game (cough, cough, Montel Harris), Rettig was not terrible, but they averaged less than 3 points per red zone possession; since you're starting with a 37 yard field goal at worse, this is remarkably bad. In other words, they matched their bend but don't break defense with a bend but don't score offense. Painful.

The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions in the table below.