College Football by the Numbers: The Top College Fantasy Football Quarterbacks In 2013 From Non-BCS Schools

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Wednesday, June 5, 2013

The Top College Fantasy Football Quarterbacks In 2013 From Non-BCS Schools

Today we have a guest blog from the fine folks at FanDuel:

While college fantasy football might not be as popular as the NFL, more and more people are playing it. With significantly more teams to pick players from, a person must do more research. Here are the top five quarterbacks from the schools you might see on television that often.

Jordan Lynch

Northern Illinois might lose some players from their Orange Bowl team, but star quarterback Jordan Lynch returns. Perhaps no other player in the country is more important to their team than Lynch, who will look to navigate through a tough MAC once again. Lynch is a true dual-threat quarterback, throwing for 3138 yards and picking up another 1815 on the ground. In total, he was responsible for 44 touchdowns for the Huskies, and the entire offense is built around his talent, it will be hard to ignore him in fantasy football leagues.

Brett Smith

The Wyoming Cowboys rarely play on national television, but Brett Smith will be looking to help them win more than just four games like they did in 2012. Smith has good size and is a very capable pocket passer. He completed over 62% of his passes in 2012, throwing for 27 touchdowns. As long as he controls the offense and doesn’t become reckless, he will be a top 10 performer.

Kolton Browning

Stuck in the heart of SEC country, Louisiana-Monroe often gets overlooked. However, more than likely, only Johnny Manziel will put up better numbers than Browning in the SEC in 2013. ULM is a passing team, but Browning can also create offense on the ground as well. He led the team in rushing, although he only notched 488 yards. His 10 picks in 2012 are a bit disturbing, but when you throw the ball 428 times in one year, you are bound to have a few bad passes.

Derek Carr

Not only does Carr have a strong college arm, but he is by far the best pro prospect out of this bunch as well. He eclipsed 4000 yards in 2012, and he rarely forced throws into coverage. Fresno State could do some damage with their schedule this season, which makes Carr a highly-touted fantasy option.

Rakeem Cato

Marshall has fallen on hard times since moving from the MAC to C-USA, but Rakeem Cato could give them a shot at winning the league in 2013. He plays high-percentage football with his passes, connecting on just under 70%. He threw for 37 touchdowns in 2012, and that number could have been higher if not for a few off games.

BPR	A system for ranking teams based only one wins and losses and strength of schedule. See BPR for an explanation.
EPA (Expected Points Added)	Expected points are the points a team can "expect" to score based on the distance to the end zone and down and distance needed for a first down, with an adjustment for the amount of time remaining in some situations. Expected points for every situation is estimated using seven years of historical data. The expected points considers both the average points the offense scores in each scenario and the average number of points the other team scores on their ensuing possession. The Expected Points Added is the change in expected points before and after a play.
EP3 (Effective Points Per Possession)	Effective Points Per Possession is based on the same logic as the EPA, except it focuses on the expected points added at the beginning and end of an offensive drive. In other words, the EP3 for a single drive is equal to the sum of the expected points added for every offensive play in a drive (EP3 does not include punts and field goal attempts). We can also think of the EP3 as points scored+expected points from a field goal+the value of field position change on the opponent's next possession.
Adjusted for Competition	We attempt to adjust some statistics to compensate for differences in strength of schedule. While the exact approach varies some from stat to stat the basic concept is the same. We use an algorithm to estimate scores for all teams on both sides of the ball (e.g., offense and defense) that best predict real results. For example, we give every team an offensive and defensive yards per carry score. Subtracting the offensive score from the defensive score for two opposing teams will estimate the yards per carry if the two teams were to play. Generally, the defensive scores average to zero while offensive scores average to the national average, e.g., yards per carry, so we call the offensive score "adjusted for competition" and roughly reflects what the team would do against average competition
Impact	see Adjusted for Competition. Impact scores are generally used to evaluate defenses. The value roughly reflects how much better or worse a team can expect to do against this opponent than against the average opponent.

Total <=0	Percent of plays that are negative or no gain
Total >=10	Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards
Total >=25	Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards
10 to 0	Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0

Total <=0	Percent of plays that are negative or no gain
Total >=10	Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards
Total >=25	Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards
10 to 0	Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0

Total <=0	Percent of plays that are negative or no gain
Total >=10	Percent of plays that gain 10 or more yards
Total >=25	Percent of plays that gain 25 or more yards
10 to 0	Ratio of Total >=10 to Total <=0

3rdLComp%	Completion % on 3rd and long (7+ yards)
SitComp%	Standardized completion % for down and distance. Completion % by down and distance are weighted by the national average of pass plays by down and distance.
Pass <=0	Percent of pass plays that are negative or no gain
Pass >=10	Percent of pass plays that gain 10 or more yards
Pass >=25	Percent of pass plays that gain 25 or more yards
10 to 0	Ratio of Pass >=10 to Pass<=0
%Sacks	Ratio of sacks to pass plays
Bad INTs	Interceptions on 1st or 2nd down early before the last minute of the half

College Football by the Numbers