Statistical Review: Syracuse #44

Syracuse did a lot of things well on offense. Nassib headlined one of the nation's most efficient pass offenses -  19th best EPA/Pass+ nationally. They lost yards on only 16% of run plays, and Nassib was sacked only 3% of the time on passing downs. This added up to a 47.8% 3rd and 4th down converstion rate (8th best in the country) and 6.6 plays per possession (6th best nationally).

But these fundamentals didn't add up to a ton of points - only 2.3 per possession (tied with a triumvirate of overrated offenses: Miami, USC and UCLA). No single factor explains this. They were average on turnovers per possession, average in the red zone, average in terms of starting field position, average in explosive plays per pass and terrible in explosive plays per run. In other words, they were the world's most frustrating offense - very good at moving the ball down the field but less good at getting something out of their efforts.

The Syracuse defense was average across the board except against the run. Opponents lost yards a quarter of the time when they decided to run. It was a high risk/high reward run defense, so they also gave up a number of big run plays, but, net, they were a top 30 run defense.

Projection:
Woe be to Syracuse. On offense, the effective passing game was picked clean. Left tackle, receivers, quarterback, even coaching staff are gone. On defense, TFL guru Brandon Sharpe is out as well as the team's top two tacklers. At then end of 2012, Syracuse was rolling. They may have missed a rare opportunity when they didn't get rolling sooner.
-------------------- The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.