Overrated Quarterbacks

Writer's block is something I understand, and I understand it particularly well when the subject of the writing is football and the words atop the calendar page are July and August.  Nothing good can happen in these months.  Ok, that's hyperbolic - MSU's Micajah Reynolds helped save a teenager's life last week, and that is most certainly a good thing.  But let's face it.  For the most part, nothing good happens.  It is a time of year rife with suspensions, injuries, and autograph brokers.  We (people who write about football) feel a need to write about football, but there is no actual football to write about.  One way to combat that is to make pre-season lists and previews.  It's fun, and it's an instant reprieve from the writers block doldrums of summer.  Everyone loves a good list (or even a bad one).  One particular list from Athlon caught my eye: the 10 most overrated quarterbacks in college football.  The list, without comment:

1. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
2. David Fales, San Jose State
3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State
4. Keith Price, Washington
5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
6. Aaron Murray, Georgia
7. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss
8. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
9. Blake Bell, Oklahoma
10. David Ash, Texas

Now, the phrase 'overrated' is a tricky one because it involves multiple factors.  The prerequisite is 'being rated' to begin with.  Last year, no one could have accused Johnny Manziel of being underrated, and no one would have said Dayne Crist was rated too highly (unless you considered him among the 120 best QBs in the sport, which surely you did not).  The other factor is effectiveness, obviously.  So, with both these factors in mind, let's take a look at this list, this time with comment.

1. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
How is he rated? Thomas was named to both the Maxwell and O'Brien Award watch lists.  He seems to be held in high esteem.
Google Monthly Searches: 14,800
Where should he be rated? Thomas accumulated 12.6 EPA last season against meager competition, ranking 101st in the country in EPA and 100th in EPA+.  What little value he had was tied to his rushing, but with no threat from his arm, his rushing wasn't particularly efficient either.  I have some optimism about his 2013 season, mostly due to Scot Loeffler breathing some life into the Hokie offense, but I see no reason he should be on these watch lists.  Excellent choice.

2. David Fales, San Jose State
How is he rated? Fales in on the watch list for both the Maxwell and O'Brien awards.
Google Monthly Searches: 2,400
Where should he be rated? No QB in the country did more damage to opposing defenses through the air last year than David Fales.  Not Johnny Manziel, not Teddy Bridgewater, not Geno Smith, not anyone.  Fales led the country in passing EPA, adding 179.1 points through the air.  His net contribution on the ground was a negative, but Fales still finished 5th overall in EPA.  He's dinged a bit when we account for competition, but not as much as you might imagine, still ranking 9th in EPA+, 6th in passing EPA+, and 11th in EPA+ per pass.  SJSU faced better defenses than you might think, matching Stanford, Utah State, BYU, and Bowling Green last season.  I made arguments last year that, with NIU's assault on the BCS, Fales had surpassed Jordan Lynch as the best QB most fans had not heard of.  And, given the paucity of searches for his name on Google even now, it's hard to suggest that's changed.  It's a bizarre selection for such a list.  Perhaps Athlon thinks he'll really miss Mike MacIntyre's leadership, despite MacIntyre's history as a defensive coach?  Even so, is a guy really that overrated if average fans read his name and say, "who?"

3. Clint Chelf, Oklahoma State
How is he rated? Chelf isn't on either the Maxwell or O'Brien award watch lists.
Google Monthly Searches: 720
Where should he be rated? Fales, while being obscure to America, was at least highly rated and well respected by pre-season magazines.  Chelf wasn't named to any of Phil Steele's 4 Big 12 teams for 2013, and received little attention at the Big 12 media days.  If Big 12 quarterbacks were Beatles, Chelf might be Stuart Sutcliffe.  Chelf finished 61st in EPA, 45th in EPA+, and 22nd in EPA+ per pass, and 11th in EPA+ per rush.  He was very good when he played, but he clearly didn't play enough to really work his way into any serious watch lists.  To suggest he's overrated is to suggest he's a below average college quarterback.  That seems pretty preposterous to me.

4. Keith Price, Washington
How is he rated: Price is on both the Maxwell and O'Brien watch lists.
Google monthly searches: 9,900
Where should he be rated? Price is not a particularly good QB, and it's reasonable to question his inclusion on the watch lists above.  Price ranked 156th (of 180) in EPA, 126th in EPA+, 126th in EPA+ per pass, and 88th in EPA+ per rush.  He's an excellent selection for this list, though I would be careful about mistaking fame (entering his 3rd season as a starter at a Pac-12 school, played in 2 bowls) for acclaim.  Perhaps he'll rebound this year as a 10th year senior.

5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
How is he rated? On Maxwell watch list, not on O'Brien.
Google monthly searches: 8,100
Where should he be rated? The Google stats would be higher if more people could spell Mettenberger.  Mett ranked 130th in EPA, 73rd in EPA+, 54th in EPA+ per pass, and 175th in EPA+ per rush.  He wasn't very good, and most people have heard of him because he plays QB for LSU.  I suppose this does make him overrated, but this is what makes lists like this so confusing: in the last 4 selections, we've had a QB everyone has heard of but few think is good (Mett), a QB few have heard of but everyone thinks is good (Fales), and a QB few have heard of but few think is good (Chelf).  In other words, everyone can be overrated!

6. Aaron Murray, Georgia
How is he rated? On both watch lists.
Google monthly searches: 27,100
Where should he be rated? Murray ranked 6th in EPA+ per pass last year.  If we limit to players with a minimum of 250 plays at the position (most QBs have well over 400), Murray ranks 4th.  UGA gained .334 points every time Murray threw the ball last year.  For comparison (unadjusted EPA per pass):
AJ McCarron: .324
Teddy Bridgewater: .300
Johnny Manziel: .279
Everyone else: < .334
He's also about to break every important individual QB record in the SEC, and he didn't even crack the 2nd team all-conference preseason list.  I would suggest he's adequately rated, usually as one of the ten best QBs in the country, but there's more evidence that he's underrated than the alternative.

7. Bo Wallace, Ole Miss
How is he rated? On both watch lists.
Google monthly searches: 4,400
Where should he be rated? 24th in EPA+, 21st in EPA+ per pass, Wallace is a very good quarterback who would likely be lighting up scoreboards if he played in a more forgiving conference or had some kind of level playing field in terms of talent within his own conference.  I personally didn't think he got enough attention last year, and pundits seem to focus too much on interceptions.  They're important, and he had 17, but they don't completely negate all the good a QB does with his arm - and Wallace did a lot of good last year.  For Wallace to be overrated, I'd have to see him listed as one of the 15 best quarterbacks in America, and that's nothing I've seen this year.

8. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
How is he rated? All-everything.
Google monthly searches: 246,000
Where should he be rated? Let's face it - this is just pandering for argument, and I won't bother getting deep into this one.  Suffice to say the best QB in the country, by definition, cannot be overrated.  I'll save analysis for the serious selections.

9. Blake Bell, Oklahoma
How is he rated? On Maxwell, not O'Brien.
Google monthly searches: 5,400
Where should he be rated? Bell attempted only 16 passes last season, so as a passer he's a virtual unknown.  He ranked 58th in EPA+ per rush (37th among QBs), but had no other notable stats.  He was named to more watch lists and all-conference teams than Chelf, which is absurd, so I can't disagree that he's overrated at this point.  I can't really agree either, however.  He's just an unknown as a full-time QB.

10. David Ash, Texas
How is he rated? On both watch lists.
Google monthly searches: 14,800
Where should he be rated? 26th in EPA, 25th in EPA+, 12th in EPA+ per pass, Ash hasn't gotten much preseason acclaim outside the watch lists.  He's probably one of the 20 best returning QBs in the country, and I don't think he really gets enough attention.  I'm not touting him for the Heisman, but neither is anyone else.  He's a good QB playing for a good team.

I know what you're thinking - if so many of these players aren't overrated, who is?  If I had to make my own top 10, without ordering the list in any way, it would be:
1. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
2. Keith Price, Washington
3. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
4. Braxton Miller, Ohio State - This Heisman candidate ranked 81st in adjusted EPA/pass, just between Corey Robinson and James Franklin.
5. Everett Golson, sandlot - On this list simply because many drastically changed their expectations for Notre Dame after he left the team.
6. Kevin Hogan, Stanford - Decent QB, but people are going to think he's responsible for Stanford's wins, and people are wont to do, and he's not even mostly responsible.
7. Jeff Driskel, Florida - Florida fans are to Driskel's production as Les Miles is to Jeremy Hill's obedience to the law.
8. Tyler Tettleton, Ohio - In The Departed, Frank Costello memorably said "I want my environment to be a product of me."   Tyler Tettleton is a product of his environment, and he's probably ok with that.
9. Keenan Reynolds, Navy - It may not have been accurate to name Reynolds to this year's O'Brien watch list, but was it ever patriotic!
10. Derek Carr, Fresno State - The ironic thing about Athlon's inclusion of Fales is that Fales is overshadowed in both NFL talks and pundit circles by his inferior conference mate.  Carr might very well be the better NFL prospect.  Fales is the better college passer.

Brent Blackwell compiles the EPA rankings for cfbtn.com.  Follow Brent on Twitter by mashing the pretty button below. Follow @brentblackwell