Statistical Review: San Jose State #17

David Fales was the most productive passer in college football (0.3 points more than Nick Florence). He drops to 11th in efficiency per play when you adjust for schedule, but all 10 quarterbacks ahead of him were playing on elite offenses in BCS programs. He completed an astounding 73% of his passes on 3rd and long, 3 percentage points better than any quarterback with at least 100 attempts. Only seven players gained 10 yards more often on pass plays (including sacks) than no or negative yards. The second best was Case McCoy with a 1.13 10 to 0 ratio. Fales had a 1.28 10 to 0 ratio. He did not generate a ton of big pass plays and threw INTs on 2% of passes (almost all of which were early downs), but otherwise he was arguably the best passer in college football.

Which was important for San Jose State, because while Fales was the most productive passer in college football, the run game was abysmal. Before adjusting for schedule, they were 113th in yards/rush, gained no yards 23.1% of carries, 111th nationally, and 114th in EPA/rush. Adjusting for schedule and they drop a few spots in each category. It was the biggest run/pass imbalance in college football, yet, I assume in response to deep, passionate self-loathing, they ran the ball 49% of the time. 

The defense was very good against the schedule they faced, but much less impressive when you adjust for schedule. They faced three competent offenses. They held Stanford to 20 (before Stanford figured out what they were doing offensively), but Utah State and Louisiana Tech topped 40. San Diego State added 34. 

Projection:

San Jose State was a relatively unimpressive 30th in points per possession and 50th in EP3+. It's impossible to know from this perspective if they could have improved on this by handing the reins over more to Fales. No doubt that will happen in 2013 unless Caragher feels the need to put his stamp on the program immediately. Fales will have all of his favorite targets back and the know-how to get them the ball.

The Spartans get another shot at Stanford, and though they almost pulled off the upset last year this should be a better team, and the game at Nevada should make Spartan fans nervous as they have an offense that could hang a big number in a hurry.

-------------------- The Statistical Review breaks down teams along a number of performance categories, everything from red zone scoring to field goal percentage, and compares that performance against the rest of the FBS. All 124 teams will be reviewed from 124 to 1 by the hybrid rankings. You can find short descriptions of the stats used in the table below.